100 years ago the House was forced into multiple ballots for speaker; it was the last time a speaker was elected after more than one ballot (For a terrifying look at how many ballots it has taken in some past races, read at your own peril here.) As we have just finished a third ballot and look headed for either a brief adjournment or a fourth vote, let’s recap:
Going into today, McCarthy could only lose 4 votes and still win.
On the first ballot, there were 19 votes against McCarthy.
On the second ballot there were… also 19 votes against McCarthy.
On the third ballot were … 20 votes against McCarthy.
………. So clearly, this is going well.
No Good Options: With both sides asserting they will hold strong, let’s take a look at some of the options there are moving forward. I have noted their probability below; depending on how long this drags on the probability will change. If this goes on very long, I’ll provide an update on odds. (Please, please, let’s hope that’s not required.)
Option 1: McCarthy holds out indefinitely, hoping the sheer passage of time will weaken the opposition.
What that could look like: McCarthy will force ballot after ballot, hoping that at a certain point, exhaustion will set in and the opposition will give up.
What it means: He’s counting on some of the 19 to waver when it’s clear they are the holdup. He’s also counting on every single vote he currently has staying with him for the long haul. Historically however, multiple ballots tend to see votes bleed from leading candidates as it becomes clear that there is a stalemate.
Likelihood: High chance of happening, low chance of suceeding.
Option 2: McCarthy plays hardball.
What that could look like: McCarthy could give a ballot number deadline to either vote for him, or the procedural compromises he has offered are off the table and/or he takes up the suggestion offered during this morning’s “closed door” caucus to not seat anyone who opposes him on committees. (I use the quotes here around closed door as it was essentially live tweeted here.)
What it means: This likely wouldn’t actually work if he went through on this threat. With the margins so close (again, he can only lose 4), he cannot afford to lose 20 votes on legislation, and many of them would be petty enough to vote no on just about anything in retaliation. It also sets up a de facto third party, which gives them outsize impact. Cutting them apart from the conference further would only make this problem worse, faster.
Likelihood: Fairly likely after a TBD number of ballots that the threat is made; unclear on whether it would be carried out.
Option 3: McCarthy caves on anything and everything the 20 want.
What that could look like: he gives them every procedural ask they have and makes additional TBD concessions.
What it means: McCarthy may win the speakership, but everyone will know he can be bullied. He will also have to compromise and allow the motion to vacate to move to 1 person, meaning he would face leadership challenges on almost any large bill, like say appropriations. He would be the weakest speaker in modern political history, assuming that they even have asks that aren’t “not Kevin McCarthy for speaker”.
Likelihood: Medium probability that it happens, unclear on the odds of success as the additional concessions needed aren’t fully known.
Option 4: Jordan flips
What that could look like: Jordan nominated McCarthy for the second ballot, and so far is hewing very close to him. However, after the first ballot, all the opposition votes have been for Jordan, so there is clearly a base of support for him. He could choose to flip on McCarthy.
What it means: This would require Jordan to go back on several years of dealmaking; if he somehow wins the speakership it could be worth it. But if he loses, he also loses all the power McCarthy has given and promised him. Better to be on the bus than under it is probably running through his mind.
Likelihood: Low probability
Option 5: Scalise flips
What that could look like: Scalise is widely seen as speaker-in-waiting, and is well liked by much of the conference. (You may also recall he was the one shot in the congressional baseball practice in Del Ray.) He is widely seen as very loyal to McCarthy and unwilling to leap over him, yet he remains an obvious fallback option.
What it means: Like Jordan, Scalise would have to risk everything he has gained, and he would also forfeit the additional almost certain path to power after McCarthy is gone. He’s very unlikely to want to risk all of that at this stage.
Likelihood: Very Low probability
Option 6: Jordan and Scalise flip together
What that could look like: They work out a deal between the two of them (likely Scalise as speaker and Jordan with pick of committees, enhanced power, maybe even a promise to be after Scalise in succession.)
What it means: This would be the ultimate knife in the back, but it would be an almost guaranteed way to move past McCarthy. Either on their own would face the possibility of failure, but together they would almost certainly sweep it after a 2-3 ballots, to give time to win over anyone loyal to McCarthy. That being said, it would be so duplicitous that it’s unlikely to happen without significantly more ballots.
Likelihood: Very Low probability
Option 7: McCarthy works with the Dems
What that could look like: McCarthy cuts a deal either with Jeffries or a couple individual Dems to give him the votes he needs.
What it means: He’d have to trade something huge, and all the things I can think of that Jeffries would want aren’t in McCarthy’s power to deliver. (Stopping the planned investigation into Hunter Biden, ensuring no impeachment efforts of Biden, etc). Individual Dem members would face so much hatred for crossing the aisle that it’s almost unthinkable, but there could be one or two bribed with a committee post or something. (And if you think bribed is an ugly word to use, this would be a correspondingly ugly deal.) That’s not even mentioning the hatred this would engender among the GOP for being forced to rely on Dems to become speaker. No, that’s not a palatable or likely option at all.
Likelihood: Least likely of any option.
Option 8: McCarthy bows out
What that could look like: McCarthy finds a sudden a hitherto unknown well of self-awareness and recognizes he is a non-starter, and for the second and likely final time, steps aside as candidate for speaker.
What it means: It would take many, many ballots for this to happen; if there was ever a man willing to trade anything and everything for a chance at Speaker it’s McCarthy. This would require him to acknowledge that every deal he brokered for the weaker win, every principle he threw away, every backwards bend of a spine he no longer seems to possess would have been in vain. It would only come if significant numbers of members deserted him, and this dragged on for many, many days.
Likelihood: Who the hell knows
Additional (chaotic) factors to consider
What does Trump do? He loves Jordan and is hot and cold with McCarthy, so does he speak out for or against one of them? How does this change a vote count? McCarthy would be smart if he were courting Trump right now, asking him for public support - but what does that deal with the devil cost him?
Could someone nominate Trump? Gaetz LOVES Trump, and technically a speaker does not have to be in the House. If Gaetz nominated Trump, imagine the difficult vote many Republicans would face. And once some of them move from McCarthy to Trump - even though Trump wouldn’t win – do they move back if yet another candidate is proposed? Admittedly, this is not someone I’ve heard anyone suggesting is probable, but I’ve learned that Congress is the definition of chaotic, so worth thinking about.
Does a candidate who is not McCarthy, Jordan or Scalise emerge? Remember that Paul Ryan was chosen as a consensus candidate, and was not seriously on anyone’s radar until his name was put out when McCarthy stepped aside.
Next Steps: I generally don’t like Matt Gaetz, but he summed up the opposition to McCarthy quite well in the second ballot – McCarthy is a man who has sold shares of himself for years. It’s true, and it’s at the base of why McCarthy is struggling right now. McCarthy has only ever stood for McCarthy being speaker, and that’s not a terribly compelling policy platform.
It’s unclear whether McCarthy tries to just hold vote after vote, or adjourns and negotiates (keeping in mind not all GOP members want to adjourn and so they would need to have Dems join them to make it happen.)
The only certainty is that CSPAN currently has their highest audience in years and that my gin collection will be getting a workout this evening. Cheers, or something.